UFC 48: Payback
Saturday, June 19, 2004·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·8 fights
Model: 7/8(88%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Ken Shamrock won by KO/TKO (R1)
Shamrock 63%37% Leopoldo
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +265(favors Shamrock)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Shamrock)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Leopoldo)
WelterweightMISS
Frank Trigg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Trigg 36%64% Hallman
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -208(favors Hallman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Hallman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Trigg)
HeavyweightHIT
Frank Mir won by Submission (R1)
Mir 55%45% Sylvia
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -304(favors Sylvia)
→Striking volume advantage: -11.3(favors Sylvia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Mir)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Hughes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hughes 60%40% Verissimo
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +189(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Verissimo)
MiddleweightHIT
Evan Tanner won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tanner 66%34% Baroni
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +251(favors Tanner)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Tanner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Tanner)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Matt Serra won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Serra 64%36% Menjivar
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Serra)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Serra)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Serra)
WelterweightHIT
Georges St-Pierre won by KO/TKO (R1)
St-Pierre 74%26% Hieron
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +200(favors St-Pierre)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors St-Pierre)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors St-Pierre)
MiddleweightHIT
Trevor Prangley won by Submission (R2)
Prangley 56%44% Stout
Over/UnderUnder 69%
Under 69%Over 31%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Prangley)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Stout)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stout)