UFC 48: Payback: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Kimo Leopoldo (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Shamrock at 1125 versus Leopoldo at 1039. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Leopoldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Kimo Leopoldo. The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Frank Trigg (2-4) taking on Dennis Hallman (3-5).

Hallman is rated at 1203 — 266 points above Trigg's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Trigg is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hallman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallman throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Trigg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Trigg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Hallman over Frank Trigg. The model gives Hallman a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Tim Sylvia (9-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Sylvia.

Sylvia carries a modest Elo edge (1296 to 1252), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Sylvia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 11.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Tim Sylvia. The model gives Mir a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Renato Verissimo (1-1).

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 297 points above Verissimo's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Verissimo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Verissimo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hughes over Renato Verissimo. We're leaning Hughes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Tanner is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tanner is rated at 1034 — 273 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tanner's wrestler game against Baroni's knockout artist approach. Tanner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Baroni is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Tanner over Phil Baroni. We're leaning Tanner here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-4). Serra will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Serra is rated at 1201 — 306 points above Menjivar's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Serra throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Menjivar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Serra over Ivan Menjivar. The model gives Serra a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Jay Hieron (0-3).

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1276 points above Hieron's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Hieron has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Jay Hieron. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Prangley (2-1) taking on Curtis Stout (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Prangley at 932 versus Stout at 831. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prangley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Prangley over Curtis Stout. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prangley at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.