UFC 46: Supernatural
Saturday, January 31, 2004·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 2/8Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Vitor Belfort won by KO/TKO (R1)
Belfort 38%62% Couture
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -272(favors Couture)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Couture)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Couture)
WelterweightMISS
Renato Verissimo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Verissimo 26%74% Newton
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -141(favors Newton)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Newton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Newton)
WelterweightMISS
BJ Penn won by Submission (R1)
Penn 47%53% Hughes
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -123(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Penn)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Hughes)
HeavyweightHIT
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mir 67%33% Sims
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +145(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Mir)
MiddleweightMISS
Lee Murray won by Submission (R1)
Murray 35%65% Rivera
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -115(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rivera)
WelterweightMISS
Georges St-Pierre won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
St-Pierre 41%59% Parisyan
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Parisyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Parisyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -11.6(favors Parisyan)
LightweightHIT
Josh Thomson won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Thomson 67%33% Franca
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -123(favors Franca)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Thomson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Thomson)
LightweightMISS
Matt Serra won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Serra 46%54% Curran
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -9(favors Curran)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Serra)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Serra)