UFC 46: Supernatural: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Randy Couture (16-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Belfort at 1255, Couture at 1248. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Couture has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Belfort is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Vitor Belfort. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Renato Verissimo (1-1) taking on Carlos Newton (3-3).

Newton carries a modest Elo edge (1023 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Newton throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Verissimo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Newton over Renato Verissimo. We're leaning Newton here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 335 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hughes over BJ Penn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hughes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Wes Sims (0-2).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 429 points above Sims's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sims has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Wes Sims. We're leaning Mir here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Lee Murray (0-0) taking on Jorge Rivera (7-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Murray at 1146, Rivera at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Murray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Lee Murray. We're leaning Rivera here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Karo Parisyan (8-3). St-Pierre will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 985 points above Parisyan's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.6 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Georges St-Pierre. The model gives Parisyan a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Thomson (3-3) taking on Hermes Franca (6-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Thomson.

There's a real Elo separation here: Thomson at 1217 versus Franca at 1107. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Thomson's striker game against Franca's wrestler approach. Thomson brings a versatile approach, while Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thomson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Thomson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Thomson over Hermes Franca. We're leaning Thomson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Jeff Curran (0-2).

Serra is rated at 1201 — 409 points above Curran's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Serra throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Curran over Matt Serra. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Curran at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.