UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Saturday, May 11, 2024·St. Louis, Missouri, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lewis 46%54% Nascimento
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-14.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nascimento)
WelterweightMISS
Joaquin Buckley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buckley 47%53% Ruziboev
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +146(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Ruziboev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 75%25% Menifield
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+4.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Ulberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ulberg)
LightweightMISS
Diego Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ferreira 25%75% Rebecki
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 22% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Rebecki)
FeatherweightHIT
Sean Woodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Woodson 60%40% Caceres
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -115(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Woodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Woodson)
HeavyweightMISS
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Acosta 46%54% Despaigne
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +89(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: -17.5(favors Despaigne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Despaigne)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Chase Hooper won by Submission (R2)
Hooper 63%37% Borshchev
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Borshchev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Borshchev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Hooper)
LightweightMISS
Esteban Ribovics won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ribovics 48%52% McKinney
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -105(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors McKinney)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ricci 60%40% Pennington
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Ricci)
WelterweightHIT
Trey Waters won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waters 52%48% Goff
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +111(favors Waters)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Goff)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Waters)
FlyweightMISS
Charles Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 40%60% Hadley
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -25(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Johnson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Veronica Hardy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hardy 56%44% Aldrich
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hardy)