UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Saturday, May 11, 2024·St. Louis, Missouri, USA
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lewis 43%57% Nascimento
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +57(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Nascimento)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nascimento)
WelterweightMISS
Joaquin Buckley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Buckley 43%57% Ruziboev
LEAN
→Elo gap: +269(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Ruziboev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Carlos Ulberg won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ulberg 65%35% Menifield
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Menifield)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Ulberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Ulberg)
LightweightMISS
Diego Ferreira won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ferreira 41%59% Rebecki
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Rebecki)
FeatherweightHIT
Sean Woodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Woodson 61%39% Caceres
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Woodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Woodson)
HeavyweightMISS
Waldo Cortes Acosta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Acosta 40%60% Despaigne
LEAN
→Elo gap: +91(favors Acosta)
→Striking volume advantage: -17.5(favors Despaigne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Despaigne)
LightweightHIT
Chase Hooper won by Submission (R2)
Hooper 65%35% Borshchev
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Hooper)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Borshchev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Hooper)
LightweightMISS
Esteban Ribovics won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ribovics 46%54% McKinney
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -120(favors McKinney)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors McKinney)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tabatha Ricci won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ricci 65%35% Pennington
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Ricci)
WelterweightMISS
Trey Waters won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waters 48%52% Goff
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +34(favors Waters)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Goff)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Waters)
FlyweightMISS
Charles Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 48%52% Hadley
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Johnson)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Veronica Hardy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hardy 54%46% Aldrich
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hardy)