UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-11) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-3).

Lewis is rated at 1493 — 280 points above Nascimento's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Nascimento's all-rounder approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nascimento is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Derrick Lewis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nascimento at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Lewis, but our model sees only 46%. That 14-point gap favoring Nascimento is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-5) taking on Nursulton Ruziboev (4-1). There's a 7-inch height gap favoring Ruziboev.

Buckley is rated at 1750 — 350 points above Ruziboev's 1400. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruziboev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ruziboev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Joaquin Buckley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruziboev at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Buckley, but our model sees only 47%. That 8-point gap favoring Ruziboev is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Ulberg (9-1) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-6-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ulberg.

Ulberg is rated at 1855 — 541 points above Menifield's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulberg rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ulberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Ulberg over Alonzo Menifield. We're leaning Ulberg here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ulberg at 70% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-7) taking on Mateusz Rebecki (4-3). Ferreira is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Ferreira is rated at 1327 — 157 points above Rebecki's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rebecki is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rebecki the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rebecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Rebecki over Diego Ferreira. We're leaning Rebecki here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ferreira at 22% implied while our model sees 25% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-2-1) taking on Alex Caceres (16-13). Woodson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Woodson at 1294, Caceres at 1264. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Alex Caceres. The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-2) taking on Robelis Despaigne (1-2). Despaigne is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Acosta is rated at 1714 — 897 points above Despaigne's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Despaigne throws significantly more leather — a 17.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Despaigne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Despaigne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Despaigne at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-5) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-6-1). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hooper is rated at 1130 — 302 points above Borshchev's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hooper's submission artist game against Borshchev's striker approach. Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Borshchev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borshchev throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Viacheslav Borshchev. The model gives Hooper a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Esteban Ribovics (4-2) taking on Terrance McKinney (8-5). McKinney will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ribovics at 1392 versus McKinney at 1302. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ribovics's striker game against McKinney's submission artist approach. Ribovics brings a versatile approach, while McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribovics throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ribovics has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Esteban Ribovics. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKinney at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (7-4) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ricci at 1358 versus Pennington at 1214. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ricci looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ricci the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Tecia Pennington. The model gives Ricci a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Trey Waters (2-1) taking on Billy Ray Goff (1-2). Waters is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Waters is rated at 1135 — 268 points above Goff's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goff throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Waters is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Goff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trey Waters over Billy Ray Goff. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Waters at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (8-6) taking on Jake Hadley (3-4).

Johnson is rated at 1243 — 255 points above Hadley's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hadley over Charles Johnson. The model gives Hadley a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (5-5) taking on JJ Aldrich (10-6). Aldrich will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hardy at 1094, Aldrich at 1113. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Hardy's all-rounder game against Aldrich's striker approach. Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldrich brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Veronica Hardy over JJ Aldrich. The model gives Hardy a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.