UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Saturday, March 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Lightweight
Holloway 46%54% Oliveira
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 47%Dec 29%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Holloway)
Middleweight
Borralho 58%42% Ridder
Method Prediction
KO 35%Sub 18%Dec 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +138(favors Borralho)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Borralho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Ridder)
Bantamweight
Font 58%42% Jr.
Method Prediction
KO 29%Sub 42%Dec 29%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Font)
Lightweight
Dober 50%50% Johnson
Method Prediction
KO 30%Sub 36%Dec 34%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Johnson)
Middleweight
Rodrigues 63%37% Ferreira
Method Prediction
KO 52%Sub 14%Dec 34%
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Rodrigues)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Rodrigues)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Rodrigues)
Bantamweight
Garbrandt 59%41% Long
Method Prediction
KO 31%Sub 37%Dec 32%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +148(favors Garbrandt)
Middleweight
Johnson 57%43% Todorovic
Method Prediction
KO 31%Sub 34%Dec 35%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +207(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Todorovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Johnson)
Featherweight
Turcios 48%52% Montes
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 43%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -171(favors Montes)
Flyweight
Durden 34%66% Tumendemberel
Method Prediction
KO 31%Sub 21%Dec 48%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -203(favors Tumendemberel)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Durden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Durden)
Flyweight
Sumudaerji 56%44% Aguilar
Method Prediction
KO 26%Sub 25%Dec 49%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sumudaerji)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Aguilar)
Featherweight
Yoo 47%53% Bolanos
Method Prediction
KO 32%Sub 20%Dec 48%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +148(favors Yoo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Yoo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Bolanos)
Light Heavyweight
Fernandez 51%49% Bellato
Method Prediction
KO 38%Sub 40%Dec 22%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -33(favors Bellato)