UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026·London, England, United Kingdom·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Majority (R5)
Evloev 68%32% Murphy
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Evloev)
FeatherweightHIT
Luke Riley won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riley 53%47% Jr.
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +66(favors Riley)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
WelterweightHIT
Michael Page won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Page 57%43% Patterson
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 64% (-6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +174(favors Page)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Patterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Patterson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Iwo Baraniewski won by KO/TKO (R1)
Baraniewski 76%24% Lane
Over/UnderUnder 71%
Under 71%Over 29%
STRONGMarket: 84% (-8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +366(favors Baraniewski)
→Striking volume advantage: +12.4(favors Baraniewski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Lane)
MiddleweightHIT
Christian Leroy Duncan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Duncan 88%12% Dolidze
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Duncan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Duncan)
FeatherweightMISS
Danny Silva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Silva 22%78% Campbell
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 30% (-8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +75(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Silva)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Mason Jones won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jones 58%42% Sola
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +80(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Jones)
FeatherweightMISS
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Split (R3)
Wood 37%63% Keita
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 31% (+6.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +428(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Wood)
HeavyweightHIT
Mario Pinto won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pinto 80%20% Franco
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 87% (-7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +416(favors Pinto)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Pinto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Pinto)
MiddleweightHIT
Mantas Kondratavicius won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kondratavicius 91%9% Trocoli
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +221(favors Kondratavicius)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Trocoli)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Trocoli)
HeavyweightHIT
Brando Pericic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pericic 74%26% Sutherland
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +218(favors Pericic)
→Striking volume advantage: +13.0(favors Pericic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sutherland)
LightweightMISS
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Al-Selwady 49%51% Rock
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -188(favors Rock)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Al-Selwady)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Al-Selwady)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Shanelle Dyer won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dyer 88%12% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +207(favors Dyer)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Oliveira)