UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Lerone Murphy (9-0-1).

Evloev carries a modest Elo edge (1715 to 1654), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Murphy has won 9 straight.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 43%, with the model also seeing 20% KO/TKO and 37% decision probability.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Lerone Murphy. The model gives Evloev a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Luke Riley (1-0) taking on Michael Aswell Jr. (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Riley at 1132 versus Jr. at 1048. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 22% KO/TKO, 23% submission, and 55% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Michael Aswell Jr. over Luke Riley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jr. at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Page (3-1) taking on Sam Patterson (4-1).

Page carries a modest Elo edge (1419 to 1343), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Patterson has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patterson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 47%, with the model also seeing 24% KO/TKO and 29% decision probability.

The Pick: Michael Page over Sam Patterson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Page at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Iwo Baraniewski (1-0) taking on Austen Lane (1-3). Lane is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Baraniewski is rated at 1102 — 319 points above Lane's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 40% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 40% submission and 21% decision.

The Pick: Iwo Baraniewski over Austen Lane. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Baraniewski at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Christian Leroy Duncan (6-2). Duncan will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dolidze at 1546 versus Duncan at 1424. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Duncan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 45% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 27% submission and 29% decision.

The Pick: Roman Dolidze over Christian Leroy Duncan. The model gives Dolidze a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kurtis Campbell (0-0) taking on Danny Silva (2-0).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1051 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 46%, with the model also seeing 23% KO/TKO and 31% decision probability.

The Pick: Kurtis Campbell over Danny Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Campbell at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (3-2) taking on Axel Sola (1-0). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Sola.

Jones carries a modest Elo edge (1175 to 1116), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Sola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 30% KO/TKO, 21% submission, and 48% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Mason Jones over Axel Sola. The model gives Jones a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (10-3) taking on Losene Keita (0-0). Keita is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 389 points above Keita's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Wood rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The submission threat is elevated here at 35%, with the model also seeing 27% KO/TKO and 38% decision probability.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Losene Keita. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wood at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Louie Sutherland (0-1) taking on Brando Pericic (1-0). Pericic is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pericic is rated at 1128 — 165 points above Sutherland's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pericic throws significantly more leather — a 13.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pericic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pericic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 60% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 18% submission and 23% decision.

The Pick: Brando Pericic over Louie Sutherland. We're leaning Pericic here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mantas Kondratavicius (0-0) taking on Antonio Trocoli (0-3). Trocoli is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kondratavicius is rated at 1000 — 196 points above Trocoli's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 41%, with the model also seeing 34% KO/TKO and 25% decision probability.

The Pick: Mantas Kondratavicius over Antonio Trocoli. The model gives Kondratavicius a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Shem Rock (0-1) taking on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (0-1). Rock is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rock at 957 versus Al-Selwady at 857. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Al-Selwady throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Selwady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Al-Selwady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 27%, with the model also seeing 27% KO/TKO and 45% decision probability.

The Pick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over Shem Rock. The model gives Al-Selwady a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shanelle Dyer (0-0) taking on Ravena Oliveira (0-2).

Dyer is rated at 1000 — 152 points above Oliveira's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 47%, with the model also seeing 18% KO/TKO and 35% decision probability.

The Pick: Shanelle Dyer over Ravena Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dyer at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Mullins (2-1) taking on Luana Carolina (6-4).

Carolina carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 1006), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 38%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 40% decision probability.

The Pick: Melissa Mullins over Luana Carolina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mullins at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mario Pinto (2-0) taking on Felipe Franco (0-0). Pinto is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pinto is rated at 1264 — 264 points above Franco's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 48% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 34% submission and 18% decision.

The Pick: Mario Pinto over Felipe Franco. The model gives Pinto a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.