UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Saturday, April 4, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Lightweight
Moicano 55%45% Duncan
Method Prediction
KO 26%Sub 42%Dec 32%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Moicano)
Featherweight
Delano 46%54% Ruchala
Method Prediction
KO 20%Sub 49%Dec 31%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +33(favors Delano)
Lightweight
Musayev 54%46% Sanches
Method Prediction
KO 25%Sub 44%Dec 31%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -54(favors Sanches)
Middleweight
Shahbazyan 50%50% Park
Method Prediction
KO 41%Sub 20%Dec 39%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Shahbazyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Shahbazyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Park)
Flyweight
Costa 71%29% Nicoll
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 22%Dec 56%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +107(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Nicoll)
Women's Strawweight
Jandiroba 63%37% Ricci
Method Prediction
KO 20%Sub 46%Dec 34%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Jandiroba)
Bantamweight
Ewing 54%46% Estevam
Method Prediction
KO 27%Sub 42%Dec 31%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -116(favors Estevam)
Light Heavyweight
Pat 61%39% Petersen
Method Prediction
KO 36%Sub 23%Dec 41%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +157(favors Pat)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Pat)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Petersen)
Women's Bantamweight
Pereira 54%46% Cowan
Method Prediction
KO 25%Sub 40%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +58(favors Pereira)
Women's Flyweight
Barbosa 51%49% Gatto
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 44%Dec 34%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -123(favors Gatto)