UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (13-7) taking on Chris Duncan (6-2).

Moicano is rated at 1641 — 262 points above Duncan's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Duncan is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Chris Duncan. The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Moicano at 36% implied while our model sees 56% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (9-4) taking on Tabatha Ricci (7-4). Jandiroba is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jandiroba is rated at 1586 — 228 points above Ricci's 1358. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Tabatha Ricci. The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jandiroba at 50% implied while our model sees 62% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (2-0) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (2-5). Ribeiro will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yakhyaev is rated at 1190 — 289 points above Ribeiro's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yakhyaev throws significantly more leather — a 8.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Yakhyaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 26.3 more per 15 minutes. Yakhyaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev over Brendson Ribeiro. The model is firm on this one: Yakhyaev at 80%. The market implies 90% for Yakhyaev, but our model sees only 80%. That 10-point gap favoring Ribeiro is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ethyn Ewing (2-0) taking on Rafael Estevam (3-1).

Ewing is rated at 1472 — 388 points above Estevam's 1084. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Estevam has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ewing throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Estevam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Ewing has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Estevam over Ethyn Ewing. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Estevam at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Ewing, but our model sees only 45%. That 13-point gap favoring Estevam is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Tommy McMillen (1-0) taking on Manolo Zecchini (0-2). McMillen is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

McMillen is rated at 1096 — 382 points above Zecchini's 713. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zecchini throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Zecchini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McMillen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tommy McMillen over Manolo Zecchini. The model is firm on this one: McMillen at 92%. Notably, the betting market has McMillen at 88% implied while our model sees 92% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Delano (1-0) taking on Robert Ruchala (0-2).

Delano is rated at 1118 — 262 points above Ruchala's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruchala throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruchala is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Delano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Delano over Robert Ruchala. We're leaning Delano here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Delano, but our model sees only 66%. That 10-point gap favoring Ruchala is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Thomas Petersen (3-3) taking on Guilherme Pat (1-1). Pat is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Petersen is rated at 1123 — 164 points above Pat's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pat throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Guilherme Pat over Thomas Petersen. The model gives Pat a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Petersen, but our model sees only 44%. That 6-point gap favoring Pat is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alessandro Costa (3-3) taking on Stewart Nicoll (0-3).

Costa is rated at 1018 — 356 points above Nicoll's 662. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicoll is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessandro Costa over Stewart Nicoll. The model is firm on this one: Costa at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Costa at 76% implied while our model sees 83% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Darrius Flowers (1-3) taking on Lando Vannata (4-8-2).

Flowers is rated at 1037 — 180 points above Vannata's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vannata throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Flowers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Vannata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lando Vannata over Darrius Flowers. The model is firm on this one: Vannata at 77%. The market implies 33% for Flowers, but our model sees only 23%. That 9-point gap favoring Vannata is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alice Pereira (1-1) taking on Hailey Cowan (0-3). Pereira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pereira is rated at 1048 — 378 points above Cowan's 670. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cowan throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cowan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alice Pereira over Hailey Cowan. We're leaning Pereira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 54% implied while our model sees 67% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Tresean Gore (3-4) taking on Azamat Bekoev (2-2). Gore will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gore is rated at 1112 — 256 points above Bekoev's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bekoev throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bekoev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Gore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Azamat Bekoev over Tresean Gore. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bekoev at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Dione Barbosa (3-2) taking on Melissa Gatto (3-3). Gatto will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barbosa at 1144 versus Gatto at 1020. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gatto throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barbosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Barbosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melissa Gatto over Dione Barbosa. The model gives Gatto a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Barbosa, but our model sees only 40%. That 16-point gap favoring Gatto is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Kai Kamaka (2-2-1) taking on Dakota Hope (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kamaka at 828, Hope at 829. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kamaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Hope has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dakota Hope over Kai Kamaka. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hope at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.