UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Saturday, April 11, 2026·Miami, Florida, USA·10 fights
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Model vs Market Disagreements
Luque +11pp edge
Main Card
Light Heavyweight
Prochazka 47%53% Ulberg
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Prochazka)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Prochazka)
Heavyweight
Blaydes 51%49% Hokit
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +447(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Hokit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Hokit)
Light Heavyweight
Reyes 57%43% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 52% (+4.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Walker)
Light Heavyweight
Murzakanov 73%27% Costa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors Murzakanov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Costa)
Prelims
Featherweight
Freire 29%71% Pico
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +243(favors Freire)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Pico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.0(favors Pico)
Featherweight
Swanson 38%62% Landwehr
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 44% (-5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Swanson)
Lightweight
Gamrot 68%32% Ribovics
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +301(favors Gamrot)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Ribovics)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Gamrot)
Welterweight
Holland 46%54% Brown
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -122(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Holland)
Early Prelims
Women's Strawweight
Suarez 59%41% Godinez
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +333(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Suarez)
Middleweight
Gastelum 57%43% Luque
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 67% (-10.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Gastelum)