UFC 327: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (9-1) taking on Tatsuro Taira (8-1). Taira is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Van carries a modest Elo edge (1678 to 1620), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Van rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Van's striker game against Taira's wrestler approach. Van brings a versatile approach, while Taira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 26%, with the model also seeing 29% KO/TKO and 45% decision probability.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Joshua Van. The model gives Taira a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Randy Brown (14-7). Holland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 1381 versus Holland at 1257. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 31% KO/TKO, 17% submission, and 52% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. We're leaning Brown here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (8-1) taking on Loopy Godinez (9-5). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 271 points above Godinez's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model gives this a 61% chance of going to the judges' scorecards, with a 40% probability of a stoppage (16% KO/TKO, 24% submission).

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Loopy Godinez. The model gives Suarez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (14-5) taking on Josh Hokit (2-0). Blaydes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 395 points above Hokit's 1240. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hokit throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hokit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hokit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 66% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 11% submission and 23% decision.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Josh Hokit. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blaydes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-5) taking on Johnny Walker (8-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Reyes at 1529 versus Walker at 1432. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 60% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 10% submission and 30% decision.

The Pick: Johnny Walker over Dominick Reyes. We're leaning Walker here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Azamat Murzakanov (6-0) taking on Paulo Costa (6-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Costa.

Murzakanov carries a modest Elo edge (1573 to 1513), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Murzakanov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 52% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 21% submission and 27% decision.

The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov over Paulo Costa. The model gives Murzakanov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 276 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Landwehr's all-rounder approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Landwehr is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

The submission threat is elevated here at 31%, with the model also seeing 29% KO/TKO and 40% decision probability.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swanson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Daukaus (4-4) taking on Vicente Luque (16-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Daukaus.

There's a real Elo separation here: Luque at 1250 versus Daukaus at 1170. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Daukaus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 41% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 29% submission and 30% decision.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Kyle Daukaus. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.