UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-6) taking on Shamil Gaziev (3-2).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1561 — 223 points above Gaziev's 1339. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaziev throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shamil Gaziev over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The model gives Gaziev a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rozenstruik at 37% implied while our model sees 44% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (7-2) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-5).

Petrino is rated at 1313 — 280 points above Pedro's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Petrino's all-rounder game against Pedro's knockout artist approach. Petrino is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pedro throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Tyson Pedro. The model is firm on this one: Petrino at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Petrino at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (7-0) taking on Alex Perez (8-6). Mokaev will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mokaev is rated at 1551 — 219 points above Perez's 1332. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mokaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Mokaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Alex Perez. The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 93%. Notably, the betting market has Mokaev at 77% implied while our model sees 93% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (8-1) taking on Bekzat Almakhan (1-2).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1809 — 788 points above Almakhan's 1021. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Almakhan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Bekzat Almakhan. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Steve Erceg (4-3) taking on Matt Schnell (7-8).

Erceg is rated at 1247 — 258 points above Schnell's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Erceg over Matt Schnell. The model is firm on this one: Erceg at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Erceg at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (10-9) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-7). Pickett will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anders is rated at 1233 — 541 points above Pickett's 692. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eryk Anders over Jamie Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Anders at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Anders at 81% implied while our model sees 85% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vinicius Oliveira (4-1) taking on Benardo Sopaj (1-1). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1485 — 513 points above Sopaj's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Oliveira rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sopaj throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sopaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sopaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benardo Sopaj over Vinicius Oliveira. The model gives Sopaj a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (8-2) taking on Javid Basharat (4-2).

Zahabi is rated at 1673 — 517 points above Basharat's 1156. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Javid Basharat over Aiemann Zahabi. We're leaning Basharat here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Zahabi at 13% implied while our model sees 30% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (7-2) taking on Claudio Ribeiro (1-3).

Duncan is rated at 1617 — 742 points above Ribeiro's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Claudio Ribeiro. The model is firm on this one: Duncan at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Duncan at 76% implied while our model sees 80% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (8-3-1) taking on AJ Cunningham (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cunningham.

Klein is rated at 1395 — 539 points above Cunningham's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cunningham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ludovit Klein over AJ Cunningham. The model is firm on this one: Klein at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Loik Radzhabov (2-2) taking on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Radzhabov.

Radzhabov carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Radzhabov throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Radzhabov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.3 more per 15 minutes. Al-Selwady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over Loik Radzhabov. The model gives Al-Selwady a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for Radzhabov, but our model sees only 39%. That 5-point gap favoring Al-Selwady is worth watching.