UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Saturday, February 24, 2024·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
FlyweightMISS
Brandon Royval won by Decision - Split (R5)
Royval 16%84% Moreno
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
STRONGMarket: 27% (-11.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -311(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Moreno)
FeatherweightMISS
Brian Ortega won by Submission (R3)
Ortega 35%65% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-5.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Ortega)
LightweightHIT
Daniel Zellhuber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zellhuber 77%23% Prado
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +43(favors Zellhuber)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Zellhuber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Prado)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Yazmin Jauregui won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jauregui 88%12% Hughes
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -124(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Jauregui)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Hughes)
LightweightHIT
Manuel Torres won by Submission (R1)
Torres 50%50% Duncan
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-11.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Duncan)
BantamweightMISS
Raoni Barcelos won by Submission (R3)
Barcelos 45%55% Quinonez
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +88(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Barcelos)
Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by Decision - Split (R3)
Aguilar 55%45% Mendonca
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +183(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Mendonca)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Mendonca)
FlyweightHIT
Edgar Chairez won by Submission (R1)
Chairez 75%25% Lacerda
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 79% (-4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +422(favors Chairez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Lacerda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Lacerda)
LightweightHIT
Fares Ziam won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ziam 71%29% Puelles
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Ziam)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Puelles)
FlyweightHIT
Ronaldo Rodriguez won by Submission (R2)
Rodriguez 57%43% Bondar
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +291(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Bondar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Bondar)
FlyweightHIT
Felipe dos Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 74%26% Altamirano
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -29(favors Altamirano)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Altamirano)
FeatherweightHIT
Muhammad Naimov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Naimov 87%13% Silva
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +671(favors Naimov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Naimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Silva)