UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreno at 1410 versus Royval at 1314. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Royval looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Royval the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Brandon Royval. We're leaning Moreno here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Yair Rodriguez (10-4). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1490), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortega is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Ortega has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Brian Ortega. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Daniel Zellhuber (3-2) taking on Francisco Prado (1-3). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Zellhuber is rated at 1082 — 157 points above Prado's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zellhuber throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Prado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zellhuber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber over Francisco Prado. The model gives Zellhuber a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yazmin Jauregui (3-1) taking on Sam Hughes (5-5).

Hughes is rated at 1232 — 284 points above Jauregui's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jauregui throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui over Sam Hughes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jauregui at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (4-1) taking on Chris Duncan (5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Torres at 1482 versus Duncan at 1375. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Duncan has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Torres's knockout artist game against Duncan's all-rounder approach. Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Duncan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Duncan over Manuel Torres. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duncan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Cristian Quinonez (1-1). Quinonez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 495 points above Quinonez's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cristian Quinonez over Raoni Barcelos. The model gives Quinonez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (3-2) taking on Mateus Mendonca (0-2). Mendonca is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Aguilar is rated at 1087 — 266 points above Mendonca's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendonca throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendonca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateus Mendonca over Jesus Aguilar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mendonca at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Edgar Chairez (1-2) taking on Daniel Lacerda (0-4).

Chairez is rated at 1011 — 392 points above Lacerda's 619. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lacerda throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lacerda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Lacerda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edgar Chairez over Daniel Lacerda. The model gives Chairez a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Claudio Puelles (5-3). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 516 points above Puelles's 1040. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ziam's striker game against Puelles's wrestler approach. Ziam brings a versatile approach, while Puelles looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ziam throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fares Ziam over Claudio Puelles. The model gives Ziam a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Ronaldo Rodriguez (2-0) taking on Denys Bondar (0-2). Bondar will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 953 — 216 points above Bondar's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bondar throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bondar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez over Denys Bondar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Felipe dos Santos (1-2) taking on Victor Altamirano (2-3).

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (908 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Altamirano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Altamirano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Altamirano over Felipe dos Santos. The model gives Altamirano a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-1) taking on Erik Silva (0-1).

Naimov is rated at 1112 — 275 points above Silva's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Naimov throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Naimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muhammad Naimov over Erik Silva. We're leaning Naimov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.